Highest temperature in Taipei on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei’s deciding data point is the *maximum temperature at Songshan Airport* between the opening and the settlement cut-off, so the practical task is to track the station’s intraday high rather than any citywide average. August in Taipei is typically hot and humid, with typical daytime highs around 32–34°C and frequent spikes into the mid-30s, while historical August records have reached 38°C and 2017 is cited as a particularly hot year. That makes the current 0% YES crowd view look extreme relative to the climatology, especially if the market is being read as a banded outcome rather than a precise figure.[2][8][10][19]

For a power-user, this is a straightforward data-ingestion problem: poll the Wunderground daily history page, capture the highest observed temperature at RCSS, and map it into the settlement bucket before the window closes. The main historical guide is that August outcomes in Taipei are usually clustered in the low-to-mid 30s, with 33°C commonly appearing in weather references and 36–37°C recurring as plausible warm-end outcomes in market pricing, so a bot should treat late-afternoon updates as the key state change rather than the morning forecast.[2][3][4][11][12]

The catalysts are the same variables that move any same-day temperature market: cloud cover, rainfall, and typhoon-adjacent weather reducing the day’s peak, versus strong insolation and weak winds allowing the station to reach the upper 30s. Wunderground’s resolution rule matters operationally because the final value is the highest recorded reading for the day, so a trader watching with conditional orders would want a script that checks the station feed repeatedly and flags the first confirmed high, then continues until the next day’s first datapoint locks the result.[4][12][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.