Highest temperature in Taipei on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Celsius temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 12 July 2026, with settlement tied to the daily high published by Wunderground. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any specific outcome, reflecting the market’s inability to resolve until the first data point for the date is published. Programmatically, traders would script a polling routine against the Wunderground history endpoint to capture the real-time high once the station updates, then execute conditional orders based on threshold breaches.

Historical climate data frames the probability landscape: July is Taipei’s hottest month, with an average high of 92°F (33.3°C) at Songshan Airport, while recent Polymarket activity for the same date shows 34°C at 37% and 35°C at 29% as leading outcomes, with 37°C dominating at 96% in a parallel market[1][3]. The 0% current probability likely stems from the unresolved status rather than a belief in cooler conditions; a bot would treat this as a latency gap, not a signal.

Traders should monitor the Central Weather Administration’s hourly airport feed and Wunderground’s daily history update schedule, as resolution depends entirely on the first published data point for 12 July[8]. No external announcements or economic catalysts apply; the sole dependency is the meteorological observation cycle. A programmatic approach would subscribe to the RCSS METAR stream and cross-reference with Wunderground’s timestamped daily max to trigger trades once the value stabilises above 33°C.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.