Highest temperature in Taipei on May 26?

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Market context

Taiwan's weather in late May sits at the cusp of pre-monsoon transition, with Taipei typically experiencing daily highs between 28–32°C as humidity climbs toward the summer monsoon season. The Songshan Airport station, located in the city's northeast, serves as the official reference point for this resolution and historically records temperatures marginally cooler than central urban areas due to its proximity to the Keelung River valley. A trader automating this market would need to pull historical data from Wunderground's archive function and establish baseline expectations: the past five years show May 26 highs ranging from 26°C to 31°C, with 2023 recording 30°C and 2022 recording 29°C.

The critical variable for May 2026 will be whether a pre-monsoon trough or tropical air mass dominates the region in the days leading up to the 26th. Taiwan's Central Weather Administration typically issues extended forecasts by mid-May, and any alerts regarding heat waves or unusual pressure systems would shift probability distributions substantially. A bot monitoring CWA announcements or tracking upper-level atmospheric patterns from the GFS model would capture shifts earlier than crowd pricing. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on May 26, which translates to 20:00 local Taipei time—meaning the final reading incorporates the entire daylight heating cycle and afternoon peak temperatures, the most reliable predictor of daily maximums at airport stations.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on May 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.