Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s reference point here is the **highest temperature recorded at Haneda Airport on 1 August**, so the market is really about an intra-day peak rather than the daily mean. At 9am UTC, the practical edge comes from programmatically polling the Wunderground history page and treating the market as a range problem: once the station’s confirmed maximum prints, the only remaining question is which settlement bucket it lands in.

The current **0% yes** price is best read as a data-gap signal, not a statement that heat is impossible. Tokyo’s August climate is normally hot enough to produce highs around the low 30s Celsius, with published August averages near **31°C–34.6°C** depending on the source, while historical extremes for Tokyo reach **37.3°C** in August 1994. That puts a broad, weather-normal outcome well inside the sort of band this market is designed to capture, even though the exact Haneda reading can differ from citywide averages and nearby stations. [2][3][11][12]

For a trader running bots or conditional orders, the key catalysts are the day’s actual temperature curve, cloud cover, rainfall, sea-breeze effects, and any late-morning convective development over the Tokyo area. The useful workflow is to watch the first official hourly maxima, then reprice only when the Wunderground history page updates the station’s running high; this is the sort of market where a script that checks for threshold crossings matters more than headline forecasts. General August guidance from travel-weather references also points to persistent heat and humidity in Tokyo, which makes the upside tail dependent on whether the day clears into strong sun rather than being capped by rain or marine air. [1][3][8][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.