Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 14 July 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day in Japan Standard Time (UTC+9) before the market locks. This creates a practical constraint: the highest temperature typically occurs in mid-afternoon local time, so the reading will be confirmed well before resolution.

July in Tokyo historically peaks between 32–35°C, with extreme heat events occasionally pushing toward 37–38°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either the market has not yet attracted liquidity or traders are pricing in an unusually cool outcome. Comparable markets on Japanese summer temperatures show meaningful variance year-to-year depending on monsoon patterns and Pacific high-pressure systems. The Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal forecasts, released monthly, provide the primary signal for whether conditions will trend above or below the thirty-year average for mid-July.

For programmatic traders, the key dependency is Wunderground's data pipeline—the site's historical records occasionally lag by 24–48 hours during high-traffic periods. Conditional order logic should account for this settlement delay. The market's reliance on a single weather station means localised phenomena (urban heat island effects, equipment calibration shifts) carry outsized weight compared to broader regional forecasts. Recent JMA updates and real-time Haneda observations from early July 2026 will be the primary inputs for refining position sizing closer to the resolution window.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.