Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo will record its peak daily heat at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 17 July 2026, with the market resolving to the specific Celsius range containing that maximum temperature. Programmatic traders typically model this by scraping historical Wunderground daily records for RJTT to build a baseline distribution, then overlaying real-time meteorological feeds to adjust for anomalous heatwaves or cooling fronts before settlement.

Historical July maxima at Haneda usually cluster between 30°C and 35°C, making the current 0% crowd-implied probability for the lowest ranges a statistical outlier that likely reflects a data ingestion error rather than a genuine forecast of sub-20°C conditions. Comparable cases from July 2023 and 2024 show consistent highs above 32°C, suggesting the market’s current pricing fails to align with the established thermal baseline for mid-summer in the Kanto region.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s 5-day forecast schedule released daily at 09:00 JST, which details expected high-pressure systems and humidity levels that directly drive temperature spikes. A recent update from the JMA confirms a persistent ridge of high pressure over the Pacific, a catalyst that historically correlates with temperatures exceeding 34°C in Tokyo during mid-July, rendering the current zero-probability stance on higher ranges highly vulnerable to rapid correction as live data flows in.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.