Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 23 July will be taken from the reading at Haneda Airport, so the practical question is whether the day’s peak lands inside the market’s Celsius band before the settlement window closes. For a programmatic approach, the cleanest setup is to poll the Wunderground history page on a fixed schedule, normalise the site’s °C output, and map the recorded daily maximum to the contract range once the 12:00 UTC window has passed.

The current **0% YES** implies the crowd sees the listed outcome as effectively unavailable, which is consistent with a summer Tokyo forecast where the market is keyed to an exact daily high rather than a broad “hot day” narrative. July in Tokyo is typically very warm, with an average high around **30°C**, high humidity, and a meaningful chance of rain; that matters because cloud cover and precipitation can cap the maximum even when the air mass is hot.[2] Longer-run Tokyo climate data also show that August is usually the hottest month, with average highs around **34.6°C**, which helps frame July as warm but not necessarily the annual extreme.[1]

For traders using bots, conditional orders, or copy-trading rules, the useful catalysts are the day’s weather evolution rather than calendar events: morning clouds, sea-breeze timing, rainfall, and any abrupt shift in humidity or wind can change the noon-to-afternoon peak. The market resolves on the highest temperature recorded for the day at Haneda, so monitoring the live station page and updating models as the local afternoon approaches is more relevant than any single forecast snapshot; July heat in Tokyo is commonly strongest from late morning into late afternoon.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 23? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.