Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s high on 24 July is typically a straightforward summer heat read: July climatology around the city sits near 30°C, with lows near 25°C and frequent rain, so the relevant question is whether the day reaches a standard hot-season peak or gets capped by cloud and showers.[1] For a market settled on the *highest* temperature at Haneda, the first half of the day matters less than the midday-to-afternoon window, when urban heating and sunshine normally do most of the work.

A 0% crowd-implied probability on the top band is only sensible if the market is asking for an extreme threshold rather than a normal Tokyo summer reading. July guidance for visitors to Japan consistently treats 30°C-plus conditions as routine, with advice to shift outdoor activity to early morning and keep the middle of the day flexible because heat and humidity are common.[2] Programmatically, a trader would model this as a day-ahead weather distribution rather than a binary call: ingest the Haneda forecast, weight the chance of clearing each settlement band, and update aggressively if the forecast nudges towards stronger sunshine or heavier rainfall.

For catalysts, the key inputs are the evolving Tokyo/Haneda forecast, any short-term shifts in precipitation timing, and whether a weak front or humid air mass stalls over the Kanto area. Because the settlement source is Wunderground’s daily history for RJTT, automated monitoring should watch the station-specific hourly forecast and then compare the realised maximum after midday UTC, since the market only resolves on the recorded high for the full local day.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.