Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak heat recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 5 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius by Wunderground. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a specific temperature range, suggesting the market expects the day to fall outside that bracket entirely. Historically, July in this region is intensely hot and humid, with average highs near 29°C and frequent spikes above 36°C, as seen in recent travel reports where humidity reached 80% alongside 36°C temperatures[4]. Forecast data for July 2026 at Haneda indicates daily highs ranging from 76°F to 91°F (approximately 24°C to 33°C), with overnight lows between 68°F and 78°F[1]. This historical baseline frames the 0% probability as a likely mispricing if the bracket excludes the common 30–33°C range, a critical insight for a power-user evaluating conditional order tools programmatically.

Traders must monitor real-time dependencies, particularly the cluster of severe thunderstorms expected to develop around 5:30 am on 5 July, which could suppress peak temperatures or alter the heat profile significantly[2]. The primary catalyst is the 14 mph southeast wind and 74% shower probability forecast for the day, which may keep temperatures below the typical July peak[3]. A programmatically approaching trader would integrate Wunderground’s live API to trigger orders if temperatures breach 30°C before noon, while cross-referencing Japan Meteorological Agency data for daily normal maximums of 28.9°C to validate deviations[7]. Recent weather patterns confirm that the rainy season persists into July, making frequent rains and high humidity (89% at 24°C) key variables to watch for settlement[6][8]. Ignoring these atmospheric dependencies risks misreading the 0% signal, as the market may be underestimating the volatility introduced by the incoming storm cluster.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.