Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the peak daily temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. A current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the “YES” outcome suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range being queried, likely because historical data points to significantly higher values.

Historical July temperatures at Haneda consistently reach the low 30s Celsius, with daily highs often between 26°C and 31°C, as confirmed by recent travel forums and weather summaries noting extreme humidity and frequent rain alongside these highs[7]. The Polymarket data for this event shows 26°C as the frontrunner at 59%, with 25°C at 20%, reinforcing that temperatures below 24°C are highly improbable and aligning with the 0% probability for lower ranges[1]. This pattern mirrors last July, when average temperatures hit record highs 2.16°C above the 30-year norm, contributing to over 120 heatstroke deaths in Tokyo[8].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s weekly forecast updates and any sudden shifts in the Pacific high-pressure system, which directly influence summer heat intensity in the region. While no specific announcement has been made for 6 July, the Met Office currently forecasts a maximum of 25°C to 27°C for Haneda, with gusts up to 15mph, suggesting stable but warm conditions[5]. Programmatically, a bot would ingest Wunderground’s historical daily data for RJTT, cross-reference it with live forecasts from AccuWeather (which projects highs of 26°C–33°C for July 2026)[4], and execute conditional orders based on deviations from the 26°C consensus[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.