Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daily temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 7 July 2026, a date that sits precisely at the transition between Japan’s lingering Tsuyu rainy season and the onset of Manatsu midsummer. Historical patterns for this specific window show daily highs typically ranging from 27°C to 35°C, with the first half of July averaging closer to 30°C before climbing toward 35°C in the latter half [1][3]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a sub-27°C outcome aligns with these norms, as the stalled low-pressure systems or frontal activity that occasionally suppress temperatures below 27°C are statistically less frequent once the rainy season tail-end recedes [2]. A power-user evaluating this tooling would programmatically filter Wunderground history for Haneda on 7 July across the last decade, noting that only rare, intense Tsuyu remnants have driven maximums below the 27°C threshold, making the 0% price a rational reflection of historical volatility rather than an anomaly.

Traders monitoring this market should watch for real-time meteorological updates on the Tsuyu front’s position and any sudden shifts in the Pacific high-pressure system, as these are the primary catalysts for temperature suppression or spikes. Recent analysis indicates that lingering frontal activity could hold Tokyo’s maximum below 27°C, but this scenario is contingent on the front stalling rather than retreating northward [2]. Programmatically, a bot would ingest hourly wunderground data for Haneda and cross-reference it with JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) forecasts for the Kanto region, triggering conditional orders if the predicted high drops below 28°C. While no specific announcement schedule exists for weather, the dependency on the Tsuyu front’s retreat is critical; if the front clears by 3 July, the probability of a sub-27°C day collapses further, validating the current 0% market stance as a robust utility for conditional trading strategies.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.