Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 9 July 2026, with the market resolving only once Wunderground publishes the first data point for that date. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the YES outcome, suggesting traders collectively doubt the temperature will fall within the specific range being queried, likely because historical July highs in Tokyo routinely exceed 30°C.

Historical patterns from the Japan Meteorological Agency and AccuWeather confirm that early July in Tokyo is scorching and humid, with daily highs typically surpassing 30°C and occasionally climbing above 35°C. The plum rainy season lingers into the first half of the month, bringing roughly ten rainy days, yet temperatures remain muggy; this context frames the 0% probability as a rational assessment that the target range is too low for a typical Tokyo summer peak.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s official forecast updates and Wunderground’s real-time data feed, as resolution depends entirely on the highest temperature recorded at Haneda. A recent Met Office forecast for 9 July predicts a sunny day with a maximum of 30°C, which could be a critical catalyst if the actual reading aligns with or exceeds this figure. Programmatic approaches would involve scraping Wunderground’s API for hourly highs and cross-referencing with JMA’s official observations to automate conditional orders based on temperature thresholds.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.