Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 8?

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Market context

Tokyo's daily maximum temperature on 8 June 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC that day, meaning traders must commit positions before the final afternoon hours when peak temperatures typically occur in early summer Japan. Haneda's official weather station provides the authoritative measurement source via Wunderground's historical archive, accessible through the linked interface with Celsius/Fahrenheit toggle functionality.

Early June in Tokyo historically sits between 24–28°C as daily highs, with occasional excursions toward 30°C during warm years or heat-wave conditions. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a narrow temperature band or insufficient trader participation to establish meaningful odds. Comparable June days at Haneda over the past decade show clustering around 26–27°C, providing a baseline for calibrating range expectations. Traders building conditional orders or bot-driven strategies should reference Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) seasonal forecasts released in May, which typically indicate whether early summer will track warmer or cooler than the 30-year normal.

Programmatic traders monitoring this market should integrate real-time Haneda observations from 7–8 June alongside JMA's 10-day outlook updates. Temperature trajectories in the 48 hours preceding settlement will signal whether afternoon peaks are tracking toward cooler (22–25°C), typical (25–28°C), or warm (28–31°C) ranges. Automated position adjustments become viable once morning temperatures on 8 June are recorded, as these constrain the theoretical maximum achievable by afternoon.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 8? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.