Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Warsaw will experience a single daily high temperature on 27 July 2026, measured at Chopin Airport's official meteorological station. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that recorded peak, with settlement data pulled directly from Weather Underground's historical archive for that specific date and location.

July temperatures in Warsaw typically range between 20–28°C, with occasional peaks above 30°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows that extreme heat events—those pushing above 32°C—occur roughly once every three to four summers in the region. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a cooler-than-average July or are awaiting seasonal forecasts before committing capital. Comparable markets on European summer temperatures have historically shown that crowd estimates shift meaningfully once meteorological institutes publish their 10–14 day outlooks, usually 10–12 days before the settlement date.

For programmatic traders, the key dependency is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) extended outlook, typically updated Thursdays and Mondays. Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) also publishes monthly climate summaries that can signal whether July 2026 is tracking toward above or below-normal temperatures. Traders building conditional order logic should flag the forecast window between mid-July and 25 July, when deterministic models converge on the likely range. Weather Underground's historical data structure allows straightforward API integration for automated settlement verification once the date passes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.