Highest temperature in Wellington on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The temperature on the runway at Wellington International Airport needs to be read as a winter high in a maritime climate: August normally sits around 10–12°C, and the airport is exposed enough that wind, cloud, and passing fronts can cap the day’s peak even when inland readings look a little warmer.[2][8][13] For a programmatic approach, the useful input is the day’s *maximum observed temperature* at the named station, not the forecast high, so a bot should be watching the history feed for the single highest hourly or sub-hourly print that Wunderground surfaces for 1 August.[2]

The 0% crowd price implies the market is already treating a higher outcome as extremely unlikely, which is consistent with Wellington’s August distribution: recent climate summaries show the month’s historical maximums clustering in the low-to-mid teens Celsius, with the warmest August values generally around 14–18°C rather than anything exceptional.[2][9][17] Comparable August guides also place average highs near 12°C, reinforcing that the settlement path normally sits in the lower temperature bands unless an unusually warm air mass arrives.[4][5][13]

The main catalysts are the same ones a rules engine would monitor: frontal timing, wind shifts, and any late-morning clearing that allows short-lived solar warming before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off.[2][15][16] Because the resolution source is station-specific and the window closes at midday UTC, traders tracking via alerts or conditional orders should pay attention to the final overnight updates and the first half of the local morning, when a brief spike can set the day’s maximum even if conditions deteriorate later.[2][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.