Highest temperature in Wellington on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington Airport’s late-July temperatures are usually modest rather than extreme, and that is the key frame for this market. Nearby forecast sources for Friday 31 July point to a cool, wet day, with highs around 11–13°C and rain or showers, which would make a double-digit maximum more plausible than a warm outlier.[1][7][9][10] For a programme-driven approach, the relevant variable is the day’s *single highest* observed reading at the airport station before the settlement window closes, so the market should be treated like a max-over-time feed rather than a noon snapshot.

The 0% crowd price can be read against Wellington’s winter climatology: July averages are low, and one daily forecast source puts end-of-month highs near 11°C, while another shows the New Zealand capital’s July norms clustering around the low teens.[7][10][11] That makes the upper temperature bands important, because even a brief sunny break or a short-lived foehn-like warming can push the day’s maximum above what the headline forecast suggests. Traders using bots or conditional orders would typically monitor hourly updates and any forecast revision around the afternoon peak, then map the live temperature path to the market’s settlement bands rather than relying on the day’s average.

Operationally, the event is straightforward but source-sensitive: the official resolution is tied to Wunderground’s Wellington Intl Airport Station history page, so the actionable task is to watch that station’s reported maximum for 31 July, not a citywide forecast or an alternative Wellington location.[15] A power-user setup would usually poll the history page as the day progresses, compare it with forecast drift from the major weather providers, and flag the market only if the expected maximum moves materially away from the low-teens range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.