Highest temperature in Wellington on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 6 July 2026, with the current market assigning a 0% probability to any outcome above 8°C. This aligns closely with historical patterns for mid-July in Wellington, where July is the coldest month, averaging a high of just 54°F (14°C) and a low of 47°F (8°C)[6]. The neighbouring market for 5 July 2026 already settled near 14°C with 85% confidence, suggesting a consistent thermal baseline for the region during this period[1]. Given these comparable cases, the 0% YES probability reflects a rational expectation that temperatures will remain within the lower range, consistent with typical winter climatology rather than an anomaly.

Traders approaching this market programmatically should monitor real-time inputs from Wunderground and MetService New Zealand, particularly any shifts in wind flow or cloud cover that could alter the daily maximum. A recent MetService update for 6 July indicates a light northerly flow, which typically moderates temperatures but does not drive them significantly higher in winter[2]. Dependencies include the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC on 6 July 2026, meaning any late-afternoon temperature spikes will be excluded from the resolution. While no major weather announcements are scheduled, continuous data feeds from NIWA and the National Weather Service remain critical for validating the final recorded value[4][8]. For conditional order bots, the key trigger is the Wunderground daily high, which must be cross-referenced against the 14°C historical average to confirm the market’s low-probability stance.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.