Highest temperature in Wellington on June 24?

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Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 24 June 2026, a date deep in New Zealand’s winter when maximums typically hover near 13°C. Historical data confirms that June highs at this station usually drop from 57°F to 54°F (roughly 14°C to 12°C), with overcast skies dominating 42% of the month [3]. While MetService recently noted Wellington shattered its record June maximum with over 19°C on 1–2 June, such extremes are anomalies rather than norms for mid-month conditions [5]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range being traded, likely because 13°C remains the statistical frontrunner for this period, as seen in parallel markets for 25 June where 13°C holds 43% probability [1].

Programmatically, a trader would approach this by querying Wunderground’s historical API for the NZWN station, filtering for the 24 June 2026 timestamp, and comparing the output against the market’s resolution ranges. Key catalysts include southerly wind blasts, which can push highs into the 11–13°C range, or unseasonal northerly flows that might briefly elevate temperatures [7]. Traders should monitor MetService’s hourly forecasts and wind speed data, as these dependencies directly dictate the peak temperature. No recent announcements suggest a weather anomaly for 24 June, reinforcing the baseline expectation of a standard winter day. The settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC ensures only the morning peak is captured, further aligning with typical June patterns where afternoon highs rarely exceed 14°C [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.