Highest temperature in Wellington on June 25?

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Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. Today, the crowd-implied probability of a specific temperature range is 0% YES, suggesting traders view the outcome as highly uncertain or outside their current models. This market is designed for power-users who evaluate prediction tools programmatically, often building bots to scrape historical weather data and execute conditional orders based on live temperature feeds.

Historically, Wellington’s June highs typically range between 10°C and 15°C, with average daily highs decreasing from 57°F to 54°F across the month[4]. A comparable case occurred on 11 June 2026, when Wellington recorded a maximum of exactly 14°C, with a 44.5% crowd-implied probability for that outcome[1]. However, MetService NZ recently reported that Wellington has already beaten its record June temperature, exceeding 19°C earlier in the month[5], which introduces volatility and challenges the 0% probability assumption.

Traders should monitor MetService NZ announcements, daily weather bulletins, and real-time Wunderground updates for sudden shifts in temperature trends[5]. The settlement window ends 2026-06-25T12:00:00Z, so dependencies include data latency, server availability, and potential weather anomalies like strong winds or rain currently affecting the region[2]. Programmatically, bots must integrate these dependencies into their logic, ensuring they account for both historical baselines and recent record-breaking events to avoid mispricing the market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.