Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan's summer peak temperatures will be measured at Tianhe International Airport on 19 July 2026, with the highest reading for that calendar day determining the settlement outcome. The airport weather station provides the official reference point, accessible via Wunderground's historical data interface with straightforward Celsius/Fahrenheit toggling through the settings gear.

July represents the height of Wuhan's humid subtropical summer, when daily maxima routinely exceed 35°C. Historical records from the past decade show July 19 specifically has seen highs ranging from 32°C to 38°C, with 2013 recording 39.4°C on that date. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or sparse liquidity; traders building automated monitoring should cross-reference multi-year Wunderground archives and regional meteorological databases to establish realistic outcome distributions rather than relying on current market positioning.

Weather forecasting accuracy for a fixed date fourteen months ahead remains limited, but seasonal patterns and longer-range climate models become more reliable as summer 2026 approaches. Traders implementing conditional order logic should monitor China Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks released quarterly, which typically flag anomalous heat patterns by spring. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 would influence East Asian summer temperatures; tracking NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index updates provides early signal. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 19 July, requiring timezone-aware automation to capture airport station readings before resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.