Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's minimum temperature on 13 July 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though final data release typically occurs within 24–48 hours of the observation period. This market requires direct access to the Observatory's official climate records rather than third-party weather services, making programmatic resolution dependent on their publication schedule and data availability.

July in Hong Kong sits within the peak summer monsoon season, when daily minimum temperatures typically range between 25–27°C. Historical data from the Observatory shows July minimums rarely fall below 24°C except during unusual weather patterns. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in near-certainty that the minimum will exceed whatever threshold defines the lowest temperature bracket—likely reflecting the seasonal norm and the rarity of anomalously cool nights during this period. Comparable July dates from recent years provide the most reliable baseline for calibrating expectations.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early July 2026, as these systems can temporarily suppress temperatures. The Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries and issues storm warnings with lead times of several days. For automated trading, setting conditional orders keyed to the Observatory's data feed URL would eliminate manual resolution lag, though the delayed publication window means live settlement cannot occur until official figures are released and verified.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.