World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The relevant event is the tally of *missed or saved* penalties taken in World Cup matches before any shootout sequence, so the practical question for traders is not who wins a match but how often referees award spot-kicks and how often keepers or errant finishes prevent conversion. A 4% yes price implies the market is pricing an outcome deep in the tail, so programme logic should treat this as a low-frequency accumulator rather than a standard goals or result contract.

Historical framing matters because World Cup penalties are scarce and unevenly distributed across tournaments. Opta’s World Cup shootout data shows that even in the separate penalty-shootout format, conversion rates can vary by slot, while FIFA’s historical shootout record underlines how much of the penalty story comes from a handful of knockout matches rather than steady tournament-wide volume.[7][2] For a comparable player-angle reference, BBC-linked and beIN reporting on the current cycle notes Harry Kane’s World Cup penalty record and Messi’s recent total, which illustrates that elite takers can move totals quickly but still face only limited sample sizes.[3]

For a power-user, the key catalysts are fixture volume, knockout progression, and any referee or VAR environment that changes penalty frequency. The 2026 format expands the field and therefore the number of matches available for penalty events, while FIFA’s rules still exclude shootout kicks from the settlement count, making late knockout drama less relevant than penalties inside normal play or extra time.[8] If you are automating around this market, the useful triggers are official match schedules, knockout bracket updates, and live event feeds that flag awarded penalties and whether they were converted, saved, or missed; FIFA’s tournament coverage and rules pages are the primary data dependencies for settlement.[8][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.