Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia will hold its first-round presidential election on 31 May 2026. The market resolves to whichever candidate receives the most valid votes, regardless of whether they exceed the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff. A second round would occur on 21 June 2026 if no candidate achieves an outright majority. The settlement window closes 31 December 2026, after which unresolved markets default to "Other".

The 0% implied probability reflects the mathematical certainty that *some* candidate will finish first in the first round—this is not a contingent outcome but an inevitable one. Historical Colombian elections have consistently produced clear first-round vote leaders. In 2022, Gustavo Petro won the first round with 40.3% before securing 50.4% in the runoff; in 2018, Iván Duque led the first round with 39.1%. The market's structure means it cannot resolve to "No"—only to a specific winner or "Other" if results remain unknown past the deadline.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track candidate registration deadlines (typically set months before the election), polling aggregates from Colombian firms like Invamer and CNC, and official announcements from the Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil. Campaign finance disclosures and withdrawal announcements by secondary candidates can shift vote concentration. The settlement dependency hinges entirely on the Registraduría publishing official first-round results before year-end; any administrative delays or contested outcomes could trigger the "Other" resolution, making timeline monitoring essential for conditional order logic.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.