Highest temperature in Beijing on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing Capital International Airport’s recorded **daily high** on 6 August will be the settlement input, so the practical task is to forecast the day’s *maximum* rather than the mean or the afternoon feeling. At 09:22 UTC on 6 August, the market is still open and the live question is whether the airport has already seen its peak before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC; Wunderground’s daily-history page is the reference point for the final print.

August in Beijing is usually hot, with forecasts and seasonal guides clustering around the low- to mid-30s Celsius for daytime highs, and some sources showing around 33°C to 36°C for 6 August specifically. That puts a 0% YES crowd price in tension with the broader climatology, because a 36°C airport high is not an outlier in the current August pattern; the more relevant framing is whether the station prints at least one reading in the selected resolution band before midday UTC, especially if the local afternoon warms further.

For a programme-driven trader, the useful checks are simple: poll the Wunderground history page, compare the highest observed Celsius reading against the market’s range bins, and alert on updates rather than relying on headline forecasts alone. The main catalysts are short-term cloud cover, rain bands, and timing of the day’s warmest hour; an official regional forecast issued on 5 August put Beijing at 26°C to 36°C with cloudy conditions, which supports a wide-but-still-summery distribution. For automation, the edge is in monitoring hourly observations and late revisions, because a small change in the station’s peak can move the outcome across adjacent temperature buckets.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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