Highest temperature in Dallas on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field will record a daily high temperature on 27 July 2026, measured in Fahrenheit and resolved via Wunderground's historical weather database. The market segments this outcome into discrete temperature ranges, with settlement determined by the single highest reading logged at that station throughout the calendar day.

Historical July temperatures at Dallas Love Field cluster heavily in the 93–98°F range, with extremes occasionally breaching 100°F during heat domes. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range clarification or treating this as a placeholder market pending activation. Comparable July heat events in north Texas show that sustained high-pressure systems drive peaks above 95°F roughly once every three years; conversely, cooler July days (sub-90°F) remain statistically rare but occur during tropical moisture intrusions. A programmatic approach would flag the National Weather Service Dallas/Fort Worth forecast window opening 7–10 days prior as the point where meaningful signal emerges, allowing conditional orders to trigger on specific atmospheric pattern triggers.

Traders monitoring this market should watch for mid-July upper-atmosphere ridge positioning and sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico, both published by NOAA. The Climate Prediction Center's 6–10 day outlook, updated Thursdays, provides early indication of whether late-July conditions favour above or below normal temperatures. Wunderground's historical archive updates daily, so settlement verification requires checking the station's complete 24-hour record post-midnight UTC on 28 July 2026.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.