Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s airport temperature on 27 July will be read from the day’s maximum at Haneda, so the practical question is whether the airfield gets one clear midday peak before the settlement cut-off at 12:00 UTC. For programme-driven traders, that means the useful inputs are hourly forecasts, nowcasts, and any sign of a convective spike rather than the city-wide headline temperature, because airport readings can diverge from urban conditions.

A 0% YES price implies the market is effectively pricing in an outcome outside the active range or treating the settlement source as unreachable, so historical comparables matter more than the live crowd signal. Tokyo in July is typically hot and humid, and guidance for visitors focuses on early starts, indoor shelter through the hottest hours, and constant hydration, which is consistent with a climate that can still produce sharp daytime maxima even when the morning begins moderately.[1] In a bot workflow, that usually translates to checking the latest ensemble and airport-specific hourly series rather than relying on broad seasonal averages.

The main catalysts are the short-term weather drivers that can shift the daily high after pre-market positioning: cloud cover, rain bands, sea-breeze timing, and any heat advisory or typhoon-adjacent pattern affecting the Kanto area. Tokyo’s airport is especially sensitive to local thermal and marine influences, so traders using conditional orders or automated re-pricing should watch for forecast updates that change the expected peak window, particularly if the strongest warming is delayed until close to the settlement hour.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.