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Israel x Syria security agreement by 2025?

Five-platform snapshot of "Israel x Syria security agreement by 2025?" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

7 outcomes · leader: June 30 at 8%

0% YES 100% NO Volume: $1.6M 24h volume: $754K Liquidity: $6K Opened: 26 Aug 2025 Closes: 31 Dec 2025 119 comments

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcement

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Israel x Syria security agreement by 2025?

Market statistics

Total volume
$1.6M
24h volume
$754K
Liquidity
$6K
Open interest
$23K
Comments
119

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
0% 100% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
0% 100% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Available prediction outcomes (7)

Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.

Market context

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcement

Wikipedia Context

  • Borders of Israel
    Borders of Israel

    The modern borders of Israel exist as the result both of past wars and of diplomatic agreements between the State of Israel and its neighbours, as well as an effect of the agreements among colonial powers ruling in the region before Israel's creation. Only two of Israel's five total potential land borders are internationally recognized and uncontested, while

  • Israel–Syria relations
    Israel–Syria relations

    Israel–Syria relations refer to the bilateral ties between the State of Israel and the Syrian Arab Republic. The two countries have been locked in a perpetual war since the establishment of Israel in 1948, with their most significant and direct armed engagements being in the First Arab–Israeli War in 1948–1949, the Third Arab–Israeli War in 1967, and the Fou

  • United Nations Disengagement Observer Force
    United Nations Disengagement Observer Force

    The United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) is a United Nations peacekeeping mission tasked with maintaining the ceasefire between Israel and Syria in the aftermath of the 1973 Yom Kippur War. The mission was established by United Nations Security Council Resolution 350 on 31 May 1974, to implement Resolution 338 (1973) which called for an immedi

  • Israel–Syria Mixed Armistice Commission
    Israel–Syria Mixed Armistice Commission

    The Israel–Syria Mixed Armistice Commission (ISMAC) was the United Nations commission for observing the armistice between Israel and Syria after the 1948 Arab–Israeli War, as part of the Mixed Armistice Commissions (MAC). The fourth and last truce agreement, the 1949 armistice agreement, was signed between Israel and Syria on 20 July 1949 on Hill 232 near Ma

Methodology

This page reviews Israel x Syria security agreement by 2025? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

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