US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is a June 2026 initial pact between the United States and Iran that halts hostilities, suspends certain sanctions, and mandates a 60-day window for technical negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme, including uranium stockpile limits and inspection protocols[1][2]. This interim Memorandum of Understanding, signed in Geneva, reopens the Strait of Hormuz and commits both sides to cease military operations while resuming diplomatic talks on nuclear ambitions[2][5].

Historically, comparable cases such as the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) show that initial agreements often stall when core disputes—like inspection access or frozen asset releases—remain unresolved[1][4]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability reflects this pattern: despite Trump’s claim of a digitally signed deal, key details including IAEA inspector access and $12bn asset unfreezing are still contested between Washington and Tehran[3][4]. Programmatically, a bot would monitor IAEA statements and US Treasury announcements for confirmation of formal adoption, as conditional orders should trigger only upon verified signing or official adoption without signature[5][6].

Traders must watch for scheduled technical working groups on sanctions relief and nuclear activities, which are set to form within days[4]. Recent Al Jazeera reporting highlights unresolved tensions over inspector access and asset releases, with Iranian state media claiming agreement on $12bn unfreezing while Washington denies confirmation[4][6]. A US-Iran peace deal granting IAEA access to nuclear sites was confirmed by the agency head, yet disputes persist over damaged site inspections[5]. Any shift in these dependencies—such as Vance confirming inspector entry or Trump reiterating threats if commitments fail—would be critical catalysts for probability movement[4][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.