Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26?

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Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract climate dataset. The settlement hinges on the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" figure, which becomes final several days after the observation date. This market requires patience: early resolution is impossible, as the Observatory typically completes data validation and publishes finalised daily records with a lag of 3–5 days.

May in Hong Kong sits at the threshold between spring and early summer, with historical daily maxima typically ranging from 28°C to 32°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either insufficient liquidity or traders awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts before committing capital. Comparable May dates show considerable year-to-year variance; a wet pre-monsoon trough can suppress temperatures below 28°C, whilst high-pressure systems push readings above 33°C. Reviewing the Observatory's historical daily records for May across the past decade provides the empirical baseline needed to calibrate range expectations.

Traders automating position management should monitor the Observatory's 9-day forecast window, which typically stabilises 5–7 days before the target date. The Hong Kong Meteorological Society publishes monthly outlooks in early May; the 2026 outlook will signal whether May 26 falls within a cooler or warmer spell. API-driven workflows can pull Observatory data directly once the Daily Extract is updated post-resolution, eliminating manual lookup. The key dependency is the Observatory's publication schedule—delays in data finalisation can postpone settlement beyond the nominal 12:00 UTC window.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.