Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Los Angeles will record a daily high temperature at LAX on 26 May 2026, and this market segments that outcome into discrete Fahrenheit ranges. The settlement mechanism pulls historical data from Weather Underground's LAX station records, which maintains consistent measurement protocols across decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient trader participation at present.

May temperatures at LAX historically cluster between 68–78°F, with occasional peaks above 80°F during Santa Ana wind events or heat domes. The 30-year average high for late May sits around 73°F. Comparable May days from 2015–2024 show the 75–80°F band captured roughly 40% of outcomes, whilst readings above 85°F occurred in fewer than 15% of cases. This historical distribution provides a baseline for evaluating which temperature bands carry genuine uncertainty versus those representing tail-risk scenarios.

Traders monitoring this market should track National Weather Service forecasts released in the week preceding 26 May, particularly alerts regarding upper-level ridge positioning or marine layer persistence. Pacific sea surface temperatures in late spring influence coastal cooling, whilst inland heat transport from the desert Southwest can drive anomalous warming. Real-time forecast updates from NOAA's GFS and NAM models typically stabilise 5–7 days out. Programmatic approaches would benefit from automated ingestion of forecast ensemble data and historical analogues, flagging scenarios where model consensus diverges significantly from climatological norms.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.