Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s highest temperature on 12 July 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that peak. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific outcome is misleading; the leading outcome is actually “34°C or higher” at 79%, indicating the market expects extreme heat rather than no event [1].

Historical July data frames this expectation: Seoul’s daily highs in July typically reach 85°F (29.4°C), rarely falling below 74°F (23.3°C) or exceeding 91°F (32.8°C) [6]. However, recent years show a sharp upward trend—July 2025 was South Korea’s second-hottest since 1973, with an average of 27.1°C, and Seoul hit 37.7°C in early July, the highest in 117 years [8][9]. The city also recorded 22 consecutive “tropical nights” (overnight temperatures above 25°C) in July 2025, breaking a century-old record [2][4]. Programmatically, traders should model this using a skewed distribution centred above 34°C, not a uniform spread.

Key catalysts include the North Pacific high-pressure system, which drives hot, humid summer conditions in Seoul, often pushing temperatures to 35°C or higher [10]. Traders monitoring this market should track real-time Wunderground data for Incheon and watch for Korea Meteorological Administration updates on high-pressure anomalies. A recent Anadolu Ajansı report confirmed Seoul’s record-breaking early-July heat in 2025, reinforcing the likelihood of similar extremes in 2026 [9]. Conditional orders should trigger if overnight temperatures exceed 25°C, as sustained tropical nights correlate with higher daytime peaks.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.