Highest temperature in Seoul on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak heat recorded at Incheon International Airport on 9 July 2026, a date falling squarely within South Korea’s monsoon season when humidity often pushes temperatures above 34°C despite frequent rain. Historical data shows Seoul’s July averages range from 23°C to 30°C, with daily highs frequently nearing 30°C and feeling like over 34°C due to 80%+ humidity[1][3]. Recent extremes are critical context: on 8 July 2026, Seoul hit 37.8°C, the highest early-July temperature ever recorded in 117 years of records, beating the 1908 benchmark[6][8]. This surge suggests the current 0% YES probability may underweight the likelihood of record-breaking heat, as such anomalies often cluster in early July before the monsoon fully intensifies.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for rain intensity and temperature anomalies, as slight rainfall shifts can drastically alter peak heat outcomes[5]. A key catalyst is the timing of the monsoon’s peak: while July is the rainiest month, heavy rain often concentrates in central inland cities like Seoul, whereas coastal areas like Incheon may experience lighter showers with refreshing sea breezes that moderate temperatures[1]. Recent news confirms South Korea is experiencing unprecedented heat, with Seoul reaching 37.7°C on the same day as the 37.8°C record, indicating a systemic heatwave rather than isolated spikes[8]. Programmatically, this market demands conditional orders triggered by Wunderground’s hourly updates for Incheon, as the resolution source explicitly relies on real-time data from that station[1]. Copy-trading bots should prioritise Incheon-specific alerts over Seoul averages, given the station’s coastal location may buffer extreme heat despite regional trends.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.