Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 28 July 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, creating a hard deadline for traders to position before the day's final readings are confirmed. Haneda's official meteorological station provides the authoritative measurement source, accessible via Wunderground's historical archive with a straightforward Celsius toggle in the platform settings.

July temperatures in Tokyo typically range between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across the full range. Historical precedent matters here: Tokyo recorded 37.5°C on 23 July 2018 and 39.1°C on 16 August 2013, establishing that readings above 38°C, whilst rare, occur roughly once per decade during summer months. For programmatic traders, the key variable is whether a heat dome develops across the Kanto region in late July 2026—a phenomenon typically flagged 5–7 days in advance by Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Japan Meteorological Agency's weekly outlook releases and any issued heat-wave warnings (particularly "extreme heat" alerts, which correlate with temperatures exceeding 35°C). Conditional order logic would benefit from integrating JMA forecast updates; a high-confidence extreme-heat warning issued by 24 July would substantially shift implied probabilities across the upper temperature bands. Haneda's proximity to Tokyo Bay also means sea-breeze patterns on the day itself can suppress afternoon peaks by 1–2°C, making real-time wind-direction data from 14:00–16:00 JST operationally relevant for final positioning.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.