# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast's next YouTube upload will accumulate a measurable view count within its first 24 hours, with the market settling on whichever bracket that figure falls into. The resolution depends entirely on YouTube's public view counter, which updates in near-real-time, though the full 24-hour window must elapse before settlement occurs. If no video materialises by 30 June 2026, the market defaults to the lowest bracket.

Historical performance of MrBeast's uploads shows consistent high-velocity engagement. His recent videos routinely exceed 50 million views within 24 hours, with several breaching 100 million. The 58% implied probability for the affirmative bracket suggests the crowd expects a video within the settlement window that clears a specific threshold—likely in the 50–100 million range based on his established baseline. Comparable creators at his scale (SET India, Zee Entertainment channels) show similar day-one velocity, though MrBeast's subscriber base of 200+ million and algorithmic favoring position him above typical benchmarks.

Traders monitoring this market should track MrBeast's upload schedule via his channel feed and social media announcements, which typically precede major releases. Recent content patterns show uploads occurring roughly weekly, making a video by mid-June statistically probable. Programmatic tracking via YouTube's API can capture view counts at hourly intervals during the critical 24-hour window; conditional orders set at specific view thresholds allow automated position management without manual monitoring. The key dependency is whether MrBeast maintains his current upload cadence—any extended hiatus would shift probability toward the default resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.