Bitcoin price on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin is trading in a broad six-figure-to-low-six-figure range across major spot venues, with Coinbase showing about **$91,151** while other market pages are much lower, around **$62,000–$64,000**. That spread matters for this market because the payout is tied to Binance’s **12:00 ET** 1-minute candle close, so a bot or trading rule should key off the exact Binance feed rather than a blended index or last trade elsewhere. [3][4][6][7]

For a historical frame, the market’s **0% YES** implies participants think the noon Binance close will land outside the market’s resolved bracket, but Bitcoin’s August behaviour is often choppy and headline-sensitive rather than directional. Recent market commentary has described August as seasonally weak and range-bound, with one forecast pointing to a roughly **$60,965** pivot between a flat month and a deeper slide, which is the sort of level a conditional order stack would watch for trigger chaining. [12][15]

The main catalysts to monitor are scheduled macro prints, any sudden ETF-flow or exchange-availability headlines, and whether BTC is already pinned near a technical support or resistance band by the time the New York session reaches noon. For programmatic execution, the cleanest approach is to poll Binance’s **1m Candles** endpoint, cache the candle that opens at **12:00 ET**, and avoid relying on delayed quote pages, because the market resolves strictly on the final candle close. If volatility accelerates into the window, the difference between a touch and a settlement close can be decided in seconds.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.