July Inflation US - Annual

Platform comparison

Market context

The July 2026 CPI release will measure how far US consumer prices have risen over the 12 months to July, with the BLS figure due on 12 August at 08:30 ET and the market settling on that print. A 2% crowd-implied probability for a specific annual outcome suggests traders are treating a sharp break from the prevailing mid-3% inflation path as unlikely, so programmatic strategies usually anchor around the last release, consensus drift and any nowcasts rather than the raw headline alone.

June’s BLS report showed CPI at 3.5% year on year, down from 4.2% in May, while core CPI eased to 2.6%.[4][6] That makes the next print a continuation test rather than a fresh regime shift: for this market to resolve much lower, July would need another strong monthly downside surprise, likely helped by softer energy and easing goods prices. By contrast, recent private and regional nowcasts still pointed to headline inflation staying near the high-3% area, with some forecasts around 3.8% to 3.9% for July and Cleveland Fed estimates in the low-3% range earlier in the month.[2][3][8][9]

A power-user approach is to watch the release calendar, the BLS methodology, and the chain of dependencies that feed into the annual rate: the monthly CPI change, the prior July 2025 base, and any energy or shelter shocks that can move the 12-month figure disproportionately. In practice, bots and conditional orders tend to pre-position around the final consensus update, then hedge into the BLS timestamp because the annual number can gap on a modest monthly move when the base effect is favourable. The main catalyst is still the BLS print itself, but Reuters noted in mid-July that upside risks remained despite June’s moderation, which is relevant because sticky services inflation can keep the annual rate elevated even if goods prices soften.[6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.