Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump remains in office as President of the United States, with the real-world event of his resignation or removal before December 31, 2026, currently priced at a 10% chance of occurring. This low probability reflects the historical difficulty of permanently removing a sitting president, as no U.S. president has ever been removed via impeachment since the Constitution’s ratification. Trump was impeached twice—first in 2019 and again in 2021—but acquitted by the Senate on all counts in both instances[2][5]. The only president to leave office before impeachment was Richard Nixon, who resigned in 1974 amid the Watergate scandal, though that occurred before formal impeachment proceedings concluded[8]. These precedents suggest that even significant legal or political pressure rarely translates into actual removal, especially when Senate acquittals are the norm.

Traders evaluating this market programmatically should monitor catalysts such as Trump’s upcoming sentencing on 26 November 2024 for 34 counts of falsifying business records, which could escalate legal pressure[1]. Additional triggers include any new impeachment resolutions in the House, shifts in Senate composition, or invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or 4, though temporary removal does not settle the market[4]. A recent report from Ballotpedia confirms Trump’s conviction status and sentencing timeline, making it a key dependency for conditional trading bots[1]. Conditional orders should be set to activate only upon confirmed announcements of resignation or removal, as the market resolves immediately on announcement regardless of when the action takes effect. Programmatic strategies must filter out temporary invocations and focus solely on permanent cessation of office.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.