Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ARCRED (-3.5) vs Just Players (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Just Players (-6.5) vs ARCRED (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Just Players (-3.5) vs ARCRED (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: ARCRED (-3.5) vs Just Players (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: ARCRED (-6.5) vs Just Players (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: ARC (-1.5) vs Just Players (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ARCRED (-6.5) vs Just Players (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ARCRED (-9.5) vs Just Players (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ARCRED (-12.5) vs Just Players (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Just Players (-6.5) vs ARCRED (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ARCRED (-3.5) vs Just Players (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Just Players (-3.5) vs ARCRED (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ARCRED (-6.5) vs Just Players (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 0% |
Market context
ARCRED and Just Players are due to meet in a best-of-three Round of 16 playoff match in CCT Europe Series #6, with the bracket still live and both sides already through to the knockout stage.[1][2] For a programmatic trader, the key practical point is that this is a standard BO3 elimination market: if the series is played and completed, the winner determines settlement; if the match is not played, is delayed beyond the market’s 7-day window, or ends without a winner, the outcome can fall back to 50-50 under the market rules.
Comparable pricing and ratings frame the current 100% crowd-implied ARCRED side as aggressive but not unprecedented. Live listings show ARCRED and Just Players coming in at roughly 1.78 and 1.92 on one sportsbook-style feed, which is close enough to imply a competitive series rather than a lock.[1] Independent pre-match pages also place ARCRED higher in ranking terms and note that Just Players have been less consistent in recent results, while Strafe’s user vote is entirely one-sided for ARCRED.[6] That combination usually tells a bot runner that the market is being priced more on bracket position and recent form than on a deep edge in map veto modelling.
The main catalysts to watch are simple operational ones: confirmed start time, server status, and whether the playoff bracket advances without reshuffles.[1][2] CCT Europe Series #6 is an online event running from 27 July to 8 August, and the playoffs are single-elimination BO3s, so any delay, technical pause, or schedule change can matter more here than in a league table format.[2][5] A bot watching this market should therefore poll official match pages and bracket updates for start confirmation, then track map-one completion rather than raw pre-match sentiment, because once the veto lands and the series begins, the path away from a 100% consensus often comes from timing risk rather than outright team news.[1][4]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Just Players (BO3) - CCT E… on Polymarket Bot UK
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