Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs INOX Division (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-6.5) vs INOX Division (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: INOX Division (-6.5) vs Eternal Fire (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: INOX Division (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs INOX Division (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-6.5) vs INOX Division (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
Market context
Eternal Fire and INOX Division are due to meet in a best-of-three Round of 16 match in the NODWIN Clutch Series playoffs, with listings showing the start time at 17:00 UTC. For a programme trading setup, the key operational point is that this resolves only on a completed match result; a cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days pushes it to 50-50 rather than a normal team win outcome.[1][3][15]
The market’s 0% YES implied price is far below most external pre-match readings, so it is best read as an execution outlier rather than a clean signal about team strength. Public previews and ranking data generally frame Eternal Fire as the stronger side, with one recent match page showing Eternal Fire around world No. 19 against INOX Division at No. 51, while another betting preview placed Eternal Fire at No. 73 and INOX Division at No. 79 and still leaned towards Eternal Fire; prediction pages also cluster around a near-even or modestly pro-Eternal Fire split rather than zero.[3][7][8][9]
For a hands-on trader, the watchlist is straightforward: confirm the official bracket and lobby start, then monitor whether the series actually goes live on schedule, because the settlement logic is highly sensitive to postponement and non-completion. Match pages note that live statistics were unavailable pre-match and that some tournament streams or data feeds were not yet populated, which is exactly the kind of dependency that can break automated order logic if the event slips or the feed remains blank.[2][7][16]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs INOX Division (BO3) … on Polymarket Bot UK
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