Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
62% | 38% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
62% | 38% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 62% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 62% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 62% |
| Match Winner | 60% |
| Map 1 Winner | 58% |
| Map 2 Winner | 57% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 48% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Enterprise Esports (+2.5) | 43% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Enterprise Esports (+2.5) | 43% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Enterprise Esports (+2.5) | 41% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 39% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 39% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 39% |
| Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Enterprise Esports (+1.5) | 34% |
Market context
Gentle Mates and Enterprise Esports are due to meet in a best-of-three upper-bracket quarter-final in the VCT EMEA Play-Ins, with the market currently leaning towards Gentle Mates at 58%. For a programme or bot that reads probabilities into position sizing, that level implies a modest favourite rather than a strong one, so the first check is whether the price is anchored by roster quality, tournament tier, or a schedule edge rather than by a clear head-to-head history, which does not exist here.[2][9][12]
The comparables point in different directions. One preview has Gentle Mates ahead on Tier S experience, LAN pedigree and stronger July opposition, projecting a 2:1 win, while Strafe’s match page shows Enterprise Esports entering after a 5-for-5 run and ranking higher in its world list, yet still gives Gentle Mates a narrow 54.8% community vote.[1][12] The cleanest programme input is that there is no prior head-to-head sample to regress against, so any model should weight recent form and opponent strength more heavily than direct history.[2][12]
For catalysts, the main watch items are confirmation that the match starts as scheduled, whether the bracket position changes, and any administrative delay that could push settlement beyond seven days and force a 50-50 outcome under the market rules.[3] The official VALORANT esports schedule should be the primary source for start-time changes, while bracket pages and team pages are useful for verifying whether Enterprise’s upset run through Challengers and Gentle Mates’ recent VCT-level experience materially alter the live price before map one starts.[11][15][16][17]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Enterprise Esports (BO3) -… on Polymarket Bot UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →