Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is whether the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark rate in the next three FOMC meetings, with the June 16–17 decision already holding the target range at 3.50%–3.75% and no cut occurring [3][5]. Current crowd-implied probability of a qualifying cut sits at 0% because the June dot plot flipped from cuts to hikes, with nine of eighteen officials now projecting at least one increase before year-end and median year-end expectations rising to 3.8% [9][10]. Recent market assessments show roughly an 80% expectation of a hike at the September 15–16 meeting, while the July 28–29 hike probability has trimmed to about 30% after data showed inflation hitting a three-year high [1][6].

Traders should programme alerts for the July 28–29 and September 15–16 announcement windows, when the FOMC releases its statement and updated dot plot at 18:00 UTC on the final meeting day [12]. Key catalysts include the next CPI and PCE prints, which will feed directly into the Fed’s inflation mandate, and any escalation in Middle East tensions that could spike rate-hike odds further [1][7]. Conditional orders can be set to trigger on the CME FedWatch probability shifts; for instance, if the September hike probability breaches 75%, copy-trading bots may flip to long-hike positions, while a drop below 25% would signal a short-hike setup [1][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.