Tunisia vs. Japan - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tunisia meet Japan in a World Cup group-stage match, with the market settling on the exact full-time score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time only, so any model or bot should ignore extra time and penalties when comparing outcomes. FIFA’s match centre lists it as Match 36 in Group F, and ESPN’s live score page confirms the fixture and live-status handling around the scheduled kick-off.[9][4]

A **0% YES** price is usually read as either a missing listed score, a stale market, or a state where the current crowd believes the explicitly listed outcome is effectively impossible. For exact-score markets, the right way to frame this programmatically is as a sparse outcome tree: each named scoreline is one node, while “Any Other Score” captures the rest, so a low price often reflects the market’s view that the true result distribution is concentrated elsewhere. Japan’s recent World Cup highlight coverage shows a 4-0 win over Tunisia, which is the kind of high-variance reference point traders use when calibrating scoreline tails rather than match winner probabilities.[2][5]

The practical catalysts are straightforward: confirm whether the fixture actually completes on schedule, whether FIFA’s match centre updates line-ups and live status as expected, and whether any postponement or cancellation changes the settlement logic embedded in the contract.[9] For power-users running alerts, the key dependency is the official score feed, because exact-score markets move late on team news, red cards, and game state; if a bot is syncing orders or copying signals, it should re-check the scoreboard feed right up to settlement rather than relying on pre-match assumptions.[4][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.