WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

West Texas Intermediate is the benchmark US crude contract, so the event resolves on the official closing price for that market rather than on spot headlines or intraday spikes. In practical terms, a 0% YES price implies the crowd sees the settlement level as unreachable by the close, so a programmatic trader would normally treat it as a tail case and check the contract specification, the exact closing timestamp, and the reference feed before placing any conditional orders.

Historical pricing gives the broader frame. Recent data points in the low- to mid-80s and upper-70s show that WTI has been materially above the threshold implied by a 0% market in some recent snapshots, including a reported 90.24 US dollars per barrel on 25 July and 78.94 on 22 June, while another feed showed 74.40 for the August 2026 contract around the same period.[1][12][11] That spread is a reminder that oil markets can move sharply between sessions, but a yes/no market only cares about the final print at expiry, so bots that monitor momentum need to distinguish between transient rallies and a close above the strike.

For catalysts, the main inputs are US inventory data, OPEC+ guidance, refinery outages, and broader risk events that can tighten or loosen prompt supply; these are the kinds of variables that often feed automated alerts and conditional-entry rules. With the settlement window ending at 21:00 UTC, traders should watch the daily futures session, scheduled macro releases, and any late-breaking energy headlines that could shift the front-month contract before the close. Recent market coverage shows WTI still trading in the high-70s to low-80s range, which means a late-session move would need to be significant to change the outcome.[7][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.