WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

WTI crude oil’s front-month settlement is the relevant real-world print for this market, with the result decided by whether the nearest listed contract settles above the strike at the close on 5 August. Programmatically, traders usually model this as a binary event on the settlement feed rather than the intraday tape, because the final answer depends on the official end-of-day settlement methodology and contract roll timing, not a momentary spike.[6][17]

Recent comparable moves show why the current 0% YES price should be read with caution: WTI has been swinging sharply, from the low-80s in early August to around the mid-70s in recent reporting, after a multi-session slide tied to easing Middle East supply fears.[5][20] That leaves plenty of room for a late-session move, but it also means the market is effectively pricing in a finish below the threshold unless there is a decisive reversal into settlement.[5][7]

The main catalysts are the daily US inventory cycle, any OPEC+ commentary or compliance headlines, and shifts in shipping or geopolitics that affect physical supply expectations. A recent report said crude extended a third straight session lower as hopes of resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz reduced disruption risk, while WTI was quoted around $74.63 and Brent at $78.44.[5] For bot users, that means monitoring settlement proxies, contract-specific quotes, and any late-day volatility around the front-month roll, since those inputs drive whether an automated order or alert should be triggered before the 21:00 UTC settlement window closes.[6][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.