France vs. Iraq - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

France face Iraq in a World Cup group-stage match scheduled for 22 June 2026 in Philadelphia, with the market settling on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time only. For a programmatic trader, the clean mapping is to treat the listed scorelines as discrete states and route everything else into **Any Other Score**, since extra time and penalties are explicitly excluded from resolution. FIFA’s match-centre listing gives the kick-off at 21:00 UTC, which aligns with the settlement window ending at 21:00 UTC on the same day.[6]

The 3% crowd-implied price for a **Yes** on a specific exact score suggests the market is expecting a low-probability, highly granular outcome rather than a broad directional call. That is consistent with exact-score markets generally, where even strong favourites are thinly priced because multiple low-scoring combinations, a late red card, or a single goal swing can invalidate a targeted entry. ESPN’s match odds make France a clear favourite and show a draw and Iraq win as much longer shots, which means the exact-score book is likely to be dominated by France-led results, with 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0 style outcomes absorbing most liquidity.[2]

The main catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, any late injury or suspension news, and whether France rotate heavily or Iraq set up conservatively before kick-off; those factors move both goal expectation and the distribution of exact scores. Traders running bots or conditional orders typically key off official team news from FIFA and the latest pre-match price updates, then watch for live roster changes because exact-score exposure can move sharply on a single striker absence or defensive change.[6][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track France vs. Iraq - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.