Türkiye vs. United States

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Türkiye meet the United States in a World Cup group-stage match at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles on 25 June 2026, with the market currently pricing a 24% chance of the listed outcome. For power users running scripts or conditional orders, the key practical detail is that settlement is tied to the match being played on schedule and the named sides appearing in the fixture list, so monitoring FIFA’s match-centre data and any timetable changes matters more than pre-match chatter.

The historical frame is thin but useful: the two teams have met only four times, and the United States hold a 2W-1D-1L edge with six goals for and five against, including wins in the last two meetings.[2] That limited sample means prior head-to-head results are a weak standalone signal, so automated traders usually weight current tournament context, squad news, and market microstructure more heavily than legacy records. ESPN’s pre-match odds snapshot also shows the United States listed around +115 and Türkiye around +205, with the draw near +300, which implies a competitive, not one-sided, fixture.[3]

The main catalysts are team announcements, injury updates, and any schedule or venue adjustments in the final build-up, because those are the inputs most likely to move a live or pre-match market before kick-off.[4] If you are wiring this into bots or copy-trading flows, watch for official line-ups, confirmed kick-off time, and any changes to group standings or qualification paths that could affect incentives in the final round of fixtures.[1][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Türkiye vs. United States on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.