San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming MLB fixture between the San Francisco Giants and Miami Marlins, scheduled for 4:10PM ET on 20 June 2026, has already concluded with the Marlins securing a 6–3 victory, rendering the 100% YES crowd-implied probability for the Giants factually incorrect. This outcome mirrors a recurring pattern where the Marlins have defeated the Giants in comeback fashion for the 14th time this season, pushing their record to 38–38 and restoring them to a 500 winning percentage[1]. Historically, head-to-head records show the Giants hold a slight edge with 81 wins against the Marlins' 78, yet recent form in June 2026 demonstrates the Marlins' dominance, including a 4–3 win on 19 June powered by Caissie's three RBIs[6].

For a power-user evaluating conditional order tools, the catalyst to monitor programmatically is the starting pitcher rotation and injury updates, particularly given Max Meyer's eighth consecutive decision win against the Giants on 20 June[3]. Traders should script alerts for official MLB announcements regarding weather dependencies or lineup changes, as the market remains open only if the game is postponed rather than cancelled entirely. Recent data from ESPN confirms the Marlins' superior on-base percentage of .324 compared to the Giants' .310, a statistical dependency that bots should weigh when assessing future conditional bets[2]. The settlement window ending 2026-06-27 allows for make-up games, but the primary resolution source remains the official final statistics as recognised by MLB, which already confirm the Marlins' victory[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.