Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Israel’s acceptance is the key event: the market resolves **Yes** only if Jerusalem explicitly says it has accepted the Board of Peace roadmap by 7 August, not merely if U.S. officials say talks are advancing. Reuters reported on 30 July that the package linked Hamas disarmament, Israeli withdrawal and an international force, while later reporting noted Israeli strikes continued and that Israeli support had not yet been confirmed[12][3][11].

For historical framing, these Gaza-process markets tend to price the first formal assent, not the long tail of implementation. Earlier phases of the Trump plan were presented as already “approved” or “agreed” by one side, yet reporting repeatedly stressed that Israel and Hamas still had to accept subsequent steps, and that the roadmap itself was phased, conditional and time-linked to verification[7][8][11]. That makes a low single-digit or low-teens price plausible when the market is waiting for an unambiguous Israeli statement rather than a broad diplomatic signal.

A trader using automation should watch for three triggers: an Israeli government or prime minister’s office statement, a Board of Peace or U.S. envoy update that quotes Israel as having accepted, and any cabinet agenda or press availability that could produce a same-day announcement. The practical edge is to monitor headline feeds and official channels for exact acceptance language, because commentary about “support”, “consideration” or “engagement” should not count if the final wording is absent; Reuters, CNN and Politico have all framed the current status as unresolved or dependent on further commitments[12][2][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.