US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is a June 2026 U.S.–Iran written framework that opened a 60-day negotiating period on Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions relief and maritime security, but it is still only a framework unless a qualifying final instrument is signed or formally adopted by the deadline.[1][3][4] For a market with a 1% crowd-implied yes, the key distinction is between a public announcement of talks and a legally relevant written agreement that fits the settlement rules; programmatically, that means tracking not just headlines but the actual language of any signed memorandum, annex, or adopted instrument.

Historically, Iran nuclear diplomacy has produced major interim steps before final settlements: the 2015 JCPOA took years of negotiation and required clear written commitments and verification structures, while U.S. withdrawals later showed how fragile even formal accords can be.[6] That history matters for pricing because markets often overreact to the first deal headline and then reprice sharply when the text reveals that core issues — enrichment limits, sanctions waivers, frozen assets, and inspection access — remain unresolved. Current reporting says the June framework was meant to be followed by a further 60-day push, which is more consistent with an interim memorandum than a final nuclear settlement.[3][4]

The most important catalysts are the next official communiqués, any scheduled signing in Geneva or elsewhere, and whether negotiators convert the framework into a signed document before 31 August.[3] Reuters reported on 14 June that the draft included oil-sanctions waivers, asset release and a commitment to negotiate a final accord within 60 days, while other reports said a planned signing had already been postponed after renewed regional violence.[4][8] For a trader using alerting or conditional-order tooling, the practical watchlist is simple: formal text release, signatures from both sides, and any statement that the framework has been “adopted” in lieu of signature, because those are the triggers that matter more than rhetoric about progress.[1][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.