Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| A | 50% |
| B | 50% |
| C | 50% |
| D | 50% |
| E | 50% |
| Other | 50% |
| BLG | 32% |
| HLE | 26% |
| T1 | 13% |
| GEN | 12% |
| KC | 10% |
| WE | 10% |
| DK | 8% |
| DCG | 6% |
| TLAW | 5% |
| LYON | 3% |
| NIP | 3% |
| G2 | 1% |
| TES | 1% |
| JDG | 1% |
| AL | 0% |
| KT | 0% |
| FLY | 0% |
| WBG | 0% |
| TSW | 0% |
| CFO | 0% |
| C9 | 0% |
| MKOI | 0% |
| IG | 0% |
| GAM | 0% |
| BFX | 0% |
Market context
League of Legends’ Global Power Rankings are an Elo-like strength model for Tier 1 teams, weighted by recent results, opponent strength, regional strength, and the context of play, so the final post-Worlds table is designed to reward late-season international form rather than a simple trophy count.[2][9] For this market, a programme or bot should watch the official rankings feed rather than inference from tournament results alone, because the resolving team is the one that sits first when Riot publishes the final 2026 ranking after Worlds, with alphabetical order only used if there is a tie at the top.[1][2]
The 26% crowd-implied YES price suggests the market is treating a specific team finishing top as plausible but far from dominant, which fits a system where one strong Worlds run can still overtake a season-long favourite. Recent comparable snapshots have shown the model moving sharply after international events: T1 led ahead of the 2025 Worlds final, and the post-Swiss update shifted multiple teams by several places, while 2024’s final published ranking also placed the strongest LCK side at No. 1.[4][9][16] That pattern matters for copy-trading or conditional orders, because the highest-ranked team can change quickly once Worlds playoffs begin.
The main catalysts are Riot’s ranking updates around Worlds, the final 2026 championship run itself, and the timing of the post-final publication. Riot has previously said the final annual rankings are published after the World Final, and the system is presented throughout Worlds on LoL Esports, so traders should watch for official update cadence rather than regular-season standings.[9] In practice, a bot setup would monitor the current GPR endpoint, compare the top-ranked team against the market’s outcome list, and only act when a post-Worlds final ranking is posted, since the settlement depends on that last published table, not on live match scorelines.[1][10]
Methodology
We track League of Legends Global Power Rankings Post Worlds: Rank 1 across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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